天然气是欧洲的电价锚

欧洲电力价格并不是独立运行的。在欧洲边际电价机制下，天然气机组常常是边际定价机组，因此天然气价格上涨会通过燃气发电成本直接抬升电力现货价格。

这一点从近期数据上非常清晰：

截至2026年3月3日，欧洲TTF价格为60.67欧元/MWh，环比上月大涨84.80%，同比上涨32.55%。

专家交流显示，3月初因地缘冲突和LNG扰动，TTF一度从约50欧元冲高到70欧元以上，随后回落到60欧元左右；若卡塔尔LNG中断1个月，TTF可能到70欧元，若中断3个月，可能超过100欧元。

为了应对能源供应的不确定性，欧洲从2020年开始调整能源结构：俄罗斯管道气下降、LNG依赖抬升、TTF均价中枢上移，这种变化决定了欧洲电价不太可能回到危机前的低位常态。

欧洲经济展望：2025-2026年报告

随着风光能源占比提高，欧洲现在的问题已经不是“电价单边上涨”，而是电价波动性变得极强：中午因光伏出力高、局部电网消纳不足而出现低价甚至负价，早晚高峰又因风光出力回落、燃气机组顶峰而出现高价尖峰。这种“鸭子曲线+边际燃气定价”的结构，恰恰是储能最有利的市场环境。欧洲能源系统的边际供应来源已经改变，价格波动上限与地缘风险暴露度都高于过去。因此，储能从“可选设备”转变为“灵活性基础设施”的逻辑更稳固。

欧洲可再生能源的占比情况

2024年欧盟可再生能源发电占比达到47.4%，其中太阳能11.1%、风能17.4%，天然气约19.2%，煤炭降至9.8%。FY24欧盟风光发电占电力生成的28.8%，占累计装机容量的47.8%。

新能源占比提升当然降低了长期边际发电成本，但也带来了更强的波动性。资料显示：2024年德国、法国、英国、西班牙负电价小时数分别达到468、356、179、247小时，同比增幅最高达147%。

这意味着，欧洲电力系统正同时面临两个问题：中午富余电太多，价格塌陷甚至为负；早晚高峰灵活电源不足，价格尖峰抬升。
储能正是连接这两个时段的桥梁，所以储能收益不是来自“均价高”，而是来自价差大。

下图可以直观看到负电价问题已经从个别现象变成系统性现象：

图：电力设备行业2025年储能年度策略：全球能源新时代，储能各场景需求加速

投资判断的含义非常直接：负电价小时数越多，说明系统对灵活性资源的边际需求越高，大储的经济性与必要性越强。

欧洲储能集中和政策

如果只有波动，没有市场化收益机制，储能需求也不会大幅起量。欧洲需求之所以正在上台阶，是因为政策和市场机制在同步完善。
核心制度变化包括：欧盟电力市场设计改革于2024年7月16日正式生效，明确鼓励储能、需求侧响应等非化石灵活性资源，并通过容量机制、PPA、双向差价合约等提供稳定回报。德国自2025年1月起要求电力供应商向所有用户提供动态电价套餐，并推动智能电表普及。

英国推出长时储能20-25年收益保障机制；意大利通过MACSE长期合同支持机制降低风险；西班牙、波兰、荷兰、德国均推出专项补贴或成本减免政策。

这些制度变化的本质，是把储能收益从过去单一的“节省电费”，扩展到峰谷套利、现货交易、辅助服务、容量补偿、长期合同保底收益等多元来源。

1. 德国：价格波动和电网成本最突出，大储与工商业储能都强

德国具备欧洲最典型的储能需求特征：

·2024年储能新增装机约6.2GWh，2025年预计8.2GWh，同比+32%。

·2024年负电价时长达468小时，同比+60%。

·2026-27 forward power price较此前上升3-4欧元/MWh。

·未来电费账单受电网成本推动，可能年均上涨约7%。

德国的储能需求不是单点驱动，而是高波动+高电网成本+动态电价+项目储备多共同推动。

2. 意大利：天然气定价权强、大储机制最清晰

意大利是欧洲最具代表性的大储市场之一：

·欧盟批准177亿欧元援助计划，支持超9GW/71GWh集中式储能。

·电力系统面临南部新能源资源与北部负荷错配，储能和输电需求都强。

·气电在意大利电价中定价权高，能源价格上涨对电价传导更直接。

因此，意大利的大储需求对能源价格上涨更敏感，且政策托底更强。

3. 英国、西班牙、荷兰、波兰：分别受容量机制、补贴与电网瓶颈催化

·英国：长时储能收益保障机制清晰，并网拥堵明显，大储前景好。

·西班牙：7亿欧元补贴、负电价和可再生能源高占比共同推动储能。

·荷兰：与光伏同步部署的电池项目获得1亿欧元补贴。

·波兰：41.5亿兹罗提补贴计划，支持大型储能提升电网稳定性。

欧洲储能的经济性

·在德国，100kW光伏+200kWh储能系统，在动态电价实施前IRR为10.3%，投资回收期8.5年；实施后IRR提升至16.8%，投资回收期缩短至3.5年。

·另一份交流指出，德国工商储项目在旧市场环境下回收期约6-7年，动态定价落地后回收期可缩短到约4年。

表：德国动态电价对储能项目收益率的影响

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场景

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IRR

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投资回收期

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关键变化

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户储：固定电价

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13.23%

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6年

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储能主要用于自发自用

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户储：动态电价

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16.88%

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4.2年

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可参与更强峰谷套利

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工商储：动态电价实施前

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10.3%

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8.5年

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收益结构较单一

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工商储：动态电价实施后

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16.8%

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3.5年

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峰谷套利+现货交易收益提升

这组数据说明，欧洲工商储需求的爆发，不需要居民能源危机重演，只需要动态电价、智能电表和聚合交易进一步铺开即可。

欧洲储能的规模

1. 总量层面：欧洲储能已进入高增长通道

根据欧洲光伏协会中性预测：

·2024年欧洲新增储能装机21.9GWh，同比增长15%；

·2025年有望达到29.7GWh，同比增长36%；

·2029年新增装机有望达到118GWh，2024-2029年CAGR约40%。

另有年度策略给出更高弹性的判断：2024A/2025E/2026E/2027E欧洲储能装机分别约21.9/29.7/41.9/68.0GWh，对应2025-2027年增速为36%/41%/62%。

表：欧洲储能装机需求的核心量化指标

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指标

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2024A

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2025E

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2026E

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2027E

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备注

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欧洲新增储能装机（GWh）

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21.9

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29.7

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41.9

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68.0

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border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

2025-2027年延续高增

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

2024-2029年CAGR

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

约40%

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

2029年新增装机（GWh）

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

118

这组数据已经足以说明，欧洲储能不是“可能增长”，而是已经处于增长斜率上行阶段。

2. 结构层面：大储是主引擎，工商储是高弹性，户储是修复型

当前欧洲储能需求不是平均增长，而是呈现很强的结构分化。<br/>2024年欧洲户储/工商储/大储新增分别为10.8/2.2/8.8GWh；2025年预计分别为9.8/3.6/16.3GWh。

这意味着：

·大储从8.8提升到16.3GWh，几乎翻倍，是绝对主引擎；

·工商储从2.2提升到3.6GWh，增速高但基数仍小；

·户储则从10.8回落至9.8-9.9GWh，说明户储并非本轮主要增量来源。

图：电新行业研究：欧洲户储需求回暖，工商储需求高速增长

<br/>图：2025年欧洲储能装机预测

上图最关键的信息不是总量，而是结构：欧洲储能的增量已经从2022-2023年的户储主导，切换到2025年之后的大储+工商储主导。

表3：欧洲储能分场景需求变化

<table class="MsoNormalTable" border="1" style="border-collapse:collapse;margin-left:0.4000pt;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 0.0000pt 0.0000pt 0.0000pt ;"><td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

场景

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

2024新增装机

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

2025预计新增装机

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

同比变化

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

需求判断

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

户储

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

10.8GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

9.8-9.9GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

-8至-9%

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

修复中，但非主增量

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

工商储

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

2.2GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

3.6GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

+62至+64%

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

高弹性增长

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

大储

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

8.8GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

16.3GWh

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

+86%

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

最强主驱动

从产业链看相关受益公司

从产业链受益结构看，最优解是围绕大储和全球化能力布局龙头：

·系统集成看阳光电源、海博思创、阿特斯；

·储能电池看宁德时代、亿纬锂能、比亚迪；

·PCS看上能电气、盛弘股份；

·户储/工商储看德业股份、艾罗能源、固德威、锦浪科技、派能科技；

·弹性材料看天赐材料、多氟多、万润新能、湖南裕能等

表：储能行业受益公司分层梳理

<table class="MsoNormalTable" border="1" style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 0.0000pt 0.0000pt 0.0000pt ;"><td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

层级

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

公司

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

核心受益逻辑

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:1.0000pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

主要看点

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

第一层：确定性龙头

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

阳光电源

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

海外大储高弹性、系统集成龙头、利润释放快

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;">

订单、出货、海外占比、毛利率

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

第一层：确定性龙头

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

宁德时代

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
background:rgb(248,249,250);">

全球储能电池龙头、成本传导能力强

<td valign="center" style="padding:2.5000pt 5.0000pt 2.5000pt 5.0000pt ;border-left:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
border-right:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;
mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1.0000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;
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储能销量、海外占比、系统方案拓展

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第二层：高弹性大储

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海博思创、阿特斯

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海外大储放量、弹性高

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海外交付、项目落地

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第二层：PCS受益

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上能电气、盛弘股份

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PCS格局稳固、受益量利齐升

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海外收入占比、毛利率改善

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第三层：户储/工商储

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德业股份、艾罗能源、固德威、锦浪科技、派能科技

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高电价、缺电、工商储替代柴发

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新兴市场需求、渠道、工商储放量

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第四层：电池二线/材料

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亿纬锂能、比亚迪、天赐材料、多氟多、万润新能等

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量价齐升与涨价传导

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排产、长协、供需拐点

结论：

第一，欧洲储能总需求已经明显提升，并处于中长期高增长通道。<br/>第二，提升最显著的是大储，其次是工商储；户储更多是温和修复而非全面爆发。<br/>第三，真正驱动储能需求的，不只是能源价格上涨本身，而是高能源价格与高新能源占比共同造成的电价波动、负电价增多、系统灵活性短缺和政策机制完善。

换句话说，能源价格上涨是欧洲储能需求上行的重要催化剂，但不是唯一驱动力；而在当前欧洲制度和电网结构下，这个催化剂更可能把需求推向“大储+工商储主导”的新阶段。免责声明：本人分享产业链逻辑观点，在任何情况下，本人观点中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议，本人不对任何人因本人观点的内容所导致的任何后果负任何责任。本人观点是基于券商研报且已公开的信息，本人观点不保证这些信息的准确性和完整性，也不保证文中观点或陈述不会发生任何变更。

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